Don’t Just Open the Doors: How Credit Unions Can Stay Ahead in a High-Risk Era
Every day, credit union teams show up, open the doors, and serve members with dedication. But here’s the truth: that’s not enough anymore. In a financial environment that’s changing faster than ever, merely showing up isn’t a strategy. It’s time to shift from maintaining operations to actively preparing for disruption.
Because disruption is coming—and in many ways, it’s already here.
Scenario Planning: It’s Not Optional Anymore
Let’s talk about scenario planning. According to a recent study of 100 large credit unions, 43% run only one scenario per year: their budget. Another 23% plan just two. That means more than half of the nation’s biggest credit unions are betting their future on just a couple of “what ifs.”
The reality is your credit union should consider running 25-35 scenarios every year. Why? Because once-unthinkable events are now just part of the reality:
- The Great Recession
- Global pandemics
- Floods, fires, and natural disasters
- Taxation threats
- Regulatory shifts
- Market volatility
- Hitting regulatory thresholds (like $10 billion in assets)
- Economic downturns
- Consumer confidence
- The devaluing of the dollar
- Technology failure, takeover, ransomware
Planning for these kinds of risks doesn’t mean you’re paranoid—it means you’re prepared. For example, Redwood FCU has been modeling for potential taxation since 2006. They’ve been planning for what happens at the $10 billion threshold long before it was even in reach. And that’s precisely why they’re able to respond fast when change comes.
Hitting $10 Billion Isn’t a Celebration Without Preparation
Crossing the $10 billion asset threshold sounds like a win—and it is. However, it also results in an immediate $35 million loss in revenue from debit interchange and increased regulatory costs. That’s not theoretical. That’s real money with real impact.
Now imagine that hitting the $10 billion mark coincides with the implementation of credit union taxation. That’s an additional $35 million loss. Combined: $70 million overnight.
If you haven’t layered your scenario planning to model what happens when multiple challenges intersect, now is the time to start.
Boards Must Be in the Game, Too
Strategic planning isn’t just a CEO’s responsibility. Forward-thinking credit unions engage their boards in every scenario—not just for buy-in but for insight and alignment. When boards understand the risks, they can advocate more effectively, make faster and more informed decisions, and help lead the organization through change.
Ask yourself:
- Is your board fluent in what $10 billion really means?
- Are they prepared to support you through shifts in taxation and compliance?
- Do they understand the cumulative impact of multiple risks combined?
Get Stuff Done—Starting with Differentiation
If we don’t differentiate, we don’t survive. Differentiation doesn’t always require significant investments or product overhauls. Sometimes, it’s about the little tweaks—repositioning a checking account to better align with your audience, refreshing your website to highlight your mission, or adjusting your messaging to emphasize what sets you apart from the big banks.
Know your competition. For most credit unions, it’s not the other credit union across town—it’s Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citi, and Chase. And those banks make it easy to stand apart. They aren’t personal. They aren’t community-focused. That’s your advantage. Use it.
Start by asking:
- Is our story clear on our website?
- Are we speaking to our members’ needs—not just offering features?
- Have we updated our services in the last year to stay relevant?
It isn’t about doing more. It’s about doing smarter, more intentional work that reinforces your mission and protects your future.
It’s Time to Act, Not Watch
The biggest threat isn’t legislation or regulation—it’s inaction. Only about 25% of credit unions participated in a recent advocacy push in Washington, D.C., despite the industry facing urgent threats. Even fewer are engaging at the state level, where some of the most aggressive anti-CU policies are taking root.
So the question becomes: What will you do next?
- Show up at the state level.
- Invest in layered scenario planning.
- Re-evaluate your differentiation strategy.
- Involve your board more deeply in planning.
- Advocate for your members and your movement—before it’s too late.
The Bottom Line
We’re all facing the same storm. The credit unions that make it through won’t be the ones who simply “open the doors” and wait. They’ll be the ones who plan, act, adjust, and lead.
